Global oil demand is projected to increase by 680 kb/d in 2025 and 700 kb/d in 2026, to reach 104.4 mb/d. Despite weaker-than-expected demand in China, India and Brazil in recent months, annual growth of 600 kb/d in 2Q25 occurred entirely in the non-OECD. Consumption in the OECD was flat, with Japan at multi-decade lows.
Global oil supply was largely unchanged in July at 105.6 kb/d, with a 230 kb/d fall in OPEC+ offset by an equal increase in non-OPEC+. Higher OPEC+ targets announced for September helped boost global oil supply growth to 2.5 mb/d this year and 1.9 mb/d in 2026, of which non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.3 mb/d and 1mb/d, respectively.
Global crude runs will approach an all-time high of 85.6 mb/d in August, with 3Q25 annual growth of 1.6 mb/d well ahead of the 1H25 average increase of just 130 kb/d. Throughputs have been raised to 83.6 mb/d (+670 kb/d y-o-y) for 2025 and 84 mb/d (+470 kb/d) next year, reflecting stronger data for the OECD and China as well as robust refining margins, which soared to 15-month highs in July.
Global observed oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month in June, up 28.1 mb m-o-m, or almost 900 kb/d, to reach a 46-month high of 7,836 mb. The increase was underpinned by swelling volumes of oil on water, and rising stocks of both Chinese crudes and US gas liquids, while other inventories mostly declined. OECD industry stocks fell by 28.8 mb in June to hover near decade-lows of 2,758 mb, 88 mb below a year ago.
Benchmark crude oil prices were largely unchanged in July, with North Sea Dated oscillating around $70 /bbl as easing trade tensions and tighter sanctions against Russia were set against the outlook for a comfortable supply market. By early August, however, prices tumbled by $3 /bbl to $67 /bbl after OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its 2.2 mb/d voluntarily output cuts by September.